Projection of socio-economic and climate scenarios impacts on food security: case of Mali and Burkina Faso

Abstract

Variation in cropping areas’ size and food security is a major problem facing Mali and Burkina Faso. The growth of agricultural production, especially of staple crops, is a key element of food security. Maize, millet, sorghum are among the most widely grown cereal crops in West Africa(Serba et al., 2019). Specifically, global statistics from FAOSTAT, show that more and more land is being taken up for cereal crops production to meet food demands. From 1999 to 2019, the area allocated to grow maize, millet and sorghum increased by 0.12%, 0.06%, 0.05% in Mali, and by 0.08%, 0%, 0.03% in Burkina Faso respectively. Based on the available literature, this paper investigated on one hand in how the cultivated areas per capita are supposed to evolve in the future under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). on the other hand, what impact this evolution might have on agricultural yields. The results show some average decreases of 3% in Mali and a constant state of harvested area per capita in Burkina Faso, in the area of each selected crops under the RCP4.5 scenario. In addition, under RCP8.5 scenario, the results show an average decrease of 1% in both Mali and Burkina Faso in the area of each selected crop. Attributed areas per capita are averagely 0.31 ha, 0.45 ha respectively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Mali. Average area per capita of 0.46 ha, 0.38 ha respectively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Burkina Faso. Average yield per capita are about 442.44 kg, 384.04 kg respectively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Mali, and 330.40 ka, 276.07 kg respectively under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Burkina Faso. Some 4% decreases in each crop yield are likely to occur in both countries under RCP4.5. While, some decreases of 6% are expected in each crop yield under RCP8.5 regardless the country. Moreover, this thesis studied the future daily intake from each of the three main crops, in both countries. Although producing enough is not the only aspect of food security in a region, it is important to know how this might change over time.