Implementation Risk Assessment and Management Applicable to the Dry Hydrogen in Arid Regions Project

Abstract

The global shift towards renewable energy and carbon removal strategies, aligned with the targets in the Paris Agreement, has given rise to innovative projects like the Dry Hydrogen in Arid Regions. Proposed to be implemented in Côte d'Ivoire, the project employs solid sorbents and renewable energy to capture carbon dioxide and water vapour, generating hydrogen and valuable fuels. This approach not only mitigates water scarcity issues but also aligns with low-carbon objectives. The study focused on exploring and managing risks during the implementation phase of the project, with a spotlight on potential cost overruns and project delays. Through an in-depth analysis of renewable energy project risks, the study provides insights and recommendations for the successful execution of the Dry Hydrogen in Arid Regions project and similar projects, thus contributing to effective risk management strategies in this context. This thesis outlines a robust risk assessment methodology that incorporates the quantitative analysis technique of Monte Carlo simulation. Drawing from the insights of experts, a deterministic risk register is formed as the basis for subsequent Monte Carlo simulations. Risk treatment options including modifying objectives, avoidance, influencing probability, and more were explored. Challenges in aligning estimated and actual project costs were acknowledged, with performance objectives considered to take precedence over project duration for emerging technologies. Risk categories encompassing financial, technical, political, environmental, contractual, social, and operational/administrative aspects were identified. Notable risks with greater influence on negative impacts include risk of expropriation or war, changes in government policies and regulations, corruption and bribery and changes in the cost of materials. These insights empower stakeholders with crucial information for informed decision-making and effective risk management.