Characterization of Efficiency losses and their possible impacts on the Cost Competitiveness of E-methanol Production from Green Hydrogen and captured CO2

Abstract

The present study investigates the characterization of efficiency losses and their possible impacts on the cost competitiveness of the e-methanol produced from green hydrogen and captured CO2. The research methodology applied in this thesis involves a literature review to acquire existing knowledge on the technologies of direct air capture, solid oxide electrolyser cell and methanol synthesis reactor. The amount of carbon dioxide and green hydrogen needed to produce e-methanol was estimated using a stoichiometric reaction. Furthermore, the study uses a cost modelling of e-methanol production, considering factors such as capital expenditures and operational expenditures. Levelized cost and cost-benefit analysis were used to determine the cost competitiveness and viability of the technology, respectively. Finally, sensitivity analysis was carried out considering different scenarios, such as economies of scale, discount rate and future scenarios. The results of levelized costs of methanol for all the scenarios range between USD1576.77/ton and USD 804.16/ton, a value which is around 1.87 to 4 times more expensive than the current methanol market value at USD 438.35/ton. The scenario with a 10% discount rate is the worst. The future scenario which is based on technological advancement appears to be the best one. Net present value is negative in all scenarios, with the percentage losses ranging from 14.34% to 60.7%. This analysis confirms that e-methanol production from green hydrogen is not yet competitive, and it is not expected to reach competitiveness until 2030, even with advances in technologies which will culminate in the reduction of the cost of the PV+ battery and solid oxide electrolyser cell by almost 60%. Hydrogen is identified as the largest cost component in the production of e-methanol, and the area for improving the cost efficiency is in photovoltaic battery storage system capital expenditures, solid oxide electrolyser, and electrolyser stack replacement. The findings of this thesis contribute to a better understanding of the efficiency loss drivers of e-methanol, which could help policymakers and investors make informed decisions about the adoption and commercialization of e-methanol.