Water availability and demand under climate change and population growth in Lake Guiers, Senegal

Abstract

During the last three decades, increasing population, changing patterns of water demand, and concentration of population and economic activities in urban areas has pressurize Senegal’s freshwater resources. To overcome this deficit, Senegal turned to the exploitation of Lake Guiers. It is the sole water reservoir in the country and its water is use for irrigating crops and sugar refinery, as well as a drinking water resource for urban centres. To address the challenges that climate change and population growth poses in Lake Guiers water resources, it is necessary to consider its potential impacts on different dimensions of water resources. In this study, future water availability and demand has been modelled under scenarios of climate change and population growth until 2030, based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 by applying the Water Evaluation And Planning System model (WEAP). The results show that the pressure on Lake Guiers’s water resources will increase, leading to greater competition between agriculture and municipal demand site. Decreasing inflow due to climate change will aggravate this situation. WEAP results offer basis to Lake Guiers water resources manager for an efficient long-term planning and management.