Impact of Rainfall and Temperature Variability on Agriculture in Dosso and Maradi Regions of Niger Republic: A Ricardian Approach

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of climate variability on crop agriculture in Maradi and Dosso regions of Niger Republic. It is based on farm data collected from over 200 farmers. Annual crop net revenue is regressed on climate and other socio-economic variables. The results are then applied to possible future climates. Marginal impacts of the climate variables on crop net revenues show different results for precipitation and temperature and also for adaptation and without adaptation models. This analysis indicates that if temperature increases by 1°C annually, the annual crop net revenues for both models will decrease: up to 582170.7 FCFA for model one (M1) and up to 1316 FCFA for model two (M2). But, the marginal impact of increasing precipitation of 1mm/month will increase crop revenue for the models: up to 721917 FCFA for M1 and 1,861,455 FCFA for M2. The study examines also the impact of uniform climate scenarios on the net revenue per hectare. They are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios: decreasing precipitation by 7% and 14% and increasing temperature (RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5). The crop net revenue will fall between 10 and 26% if the scenarios happened. Another finding of this thesis is that: Each farmer who is practicing adaptation is able to cover the potential loss from climate change. For instance, farmer from Maradi and Dosso can respectively compensate the potential adverse impact of climate variability up to 8.95% and 12.71% per ha. How farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt were captured in this study. It also gives constraints on adaptation mechanisms. Farmers of these regions are aware of climate changes. The majority of them remarked a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature, and that some have taken adaptive measures. The analyses on top more or less testify the size and direction of the impact of climate change on crop net revenue. In general, the results provide an opinion about decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature that are harmful to the agricultural productivity. Maradi region is more affected by climate change negative impacts comparing to Dosso region. These results propose that Niger Republic should start planning measures for unexpected events of climate conditions. There is need to encourage irrigated systems in order to minimise the vulnerability of the agricultural sector.