System Dynamic Model of a Distributed Generation for Energy Security in Niamey

Abstract

Economic development is based on a reliable and cost effective energy supply. To sustain their economic growth, emerging countries need a dependable Distributed Generation (DG). DG is an efficient way to reach energy security by minimizing power losses in long and aging transmission lines. Due to the inherent Complexity of electricity systems, this study proposes to use System Dynamics (SD) modeling approach to investigate the links between electricity supply and demand, population growth, and real climatic parameters in Niamey, Niger. Some of the variables utilized in this study were the local solar radiation and wind speed. Results proved that: (1) the current population would reach 4,500,000 people in the horizon of 2050 under the actual birth and death rates; (2) the highest summer electricity demand in the year 2012 was 97.3 MW; (3) electricity supply can be far higher than demand by implementing a 72.3 MW Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in conjunction with 15 MW Energy Storage System (ESS); and (4) through sensitive analysis, Niamey and neighboring vicinity would reach energy independence from now to 2050, and even beyond. Finally, this study proposes some policy guidelines and recommendations.