Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Solar Energy Potential over West Africa: The Case of Mali

Abstract

Solar energy remains one of the few bright spots in renewable energies in the 21 st century. Solar farms can provide clean renewable energy to homes, businesses, and the agricultural sector. An investigation was done on the impact of climate change on the solar energy potential in two locations in the Sahelian part of Mali (Bamako and Mopti) together with an assessment of the suitability of these regions for siting solar energy panels for both present day and future climate. The study was done using the output of the 12-km spatial resolution weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that the increase in Shortwave-Surface-Downward-Diffuse-Irradiance (swddif) is more significant in the near and far future in Bamako than Mopti. For the near future an increase of +2.2W/m2 for Bamako and +1W/m2 for Mopti were observed in May. For the far future, an increase of +3.5W/m2 for Bamako and +1.75W/m2 for Mopti were observed in May. However, increase in Shortwave-Surface-Downward-Direct-Irradiance (swddir) is almost the same for Bamako and Mopti for the near future an increase of +2W/m2 observed in the month of July for both Bamako and Mopti and for the far future an increase of +6W/m2 observed in the month of July for both Bamako and Mopti. There is an increase of temperature over both localities and it’s more significant in Mopti than Bamako. A continuous increase in surface temperature(ts) is clearly observed for the near and far future over both Bamako and Mopti. The peaks over both localities are observed in May, September, October, and November. A high augmentation is observed during the month of February for both near and far future. Thus, based on the three parameters used in this study, the locality of Mopti will be more suitable for solar energy panels to satisfy the energy needs in Mali.