Application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System to Assess Electricity Supply and Demand in Niger

Abstract

This study analyses Niger’s current and future electricity supply and demand scenarios by exploring various resource potentials and their environmental impact. Based on the government of Niger’s (GoN) plans, this study uses LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) software to assess three policy scenarios, including 1) Reference (REF), 2) More Renewable Resources (MRR), and 3) More Renewable energy and Natural gas (MRN) from 2020 (base year) to 2050 (end year). The associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (CO2, CH4, and N2O) are assessed for each power generation scenario based on the IPCC Tier 1 database. The results reveal that electricity demand is projected to reach 13.2 and 16.6 TWh, respectively, in the REF and the high-demand scenarios (MRR and MRN). This demand will be met at around 84% in the REF scenario and 87% in both the MRR and MRN scenarios by 2050. As early as 2050, Nigeria's electricity imports will amount to only 12% of the total. Also, the CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions will be drastically reduced, respectively, to 43.13%, 51.5%, and 80.7% in the MRN scenario compared to the REF scenario.