Integrating Climate Information into Meningitis Preparedness in West Africa: Insights from Saharan Dust and Large-Scale Atmospheric Drivers

Abstract

Saharan dust and BM incidence are strongly correlated. Peaks in PM10 concentrations, low humidity, and high temperature precede meningitis outbreaks by 2 to 4 weeks, especially in the Sahelian zone.  ENSO influence West African dust variability through modulation of synoptic systems. During El Niño, weakened Azores High and reduced pressure gradients lead to lower dust activity. During La Niña or positive NAO phases, the Azores High strengthens, intensifying dust transport. In addition, due to the Siberian High enhancing the north-south pressure gradient during winter, Harmattan wind strength increases and promotes dry, dusty airflow over the region.  Predictive models using climate and environmental variables provide early warning with 2–3 weeks lead time. Machine learning models like Machine learning models like XGBoost in Nigeria, CatBoost in Burkina Faso) highlight vaccination, RH, and meridional wind as the most influential predictors across countries.