Climate change impact on the energy sector and sustainable supply in line with the Malian National Determined Contribution (NDCs).

Abstract

The sustainability of countries' energy systems requires long-term energy planning. Energy is key to the sustainable development of the modern world and indispensable to maintaining long-term energy planning. Energy systems are greatly affected by climate change, which is projected to alter countries and cities’ energy demand and supply systems. Global warming is projected to affect energy systems. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) effect increasing is already changing the world’s climate, increasing atmospheric temperatures, and affecting the land surface, with precipitation patterns changing at the same time as the energy systems. Long-term energy systems and adapted policies to fight against climate change are required. This thesis focuses on long-term energy planning in the context of the changing climate and the various energy policies put in place to adapt and mitigate climate change. The thesis presents an extensive and in-depth analysis of the country's energy systems in response to longer-term energy supply sustainability. It looks at the general context of energy systems (supply and generation); moreover, it looks at the sustainability of the current and future energy supply and projects the impact of climate change on different climate energy parameters (precipitation, wind, short wave radiation, sunshine duration, etc.) that affect energy generation. Afterward, the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to project the mid- and long-term climate change impact on the Malian energy system. This research assesses the impacts of climate change on energy systems using the climate projections from CORDEX GCMs driven by RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents a more moderate pathway of greenhouse gas emissions, while the RCP 8.5 scenario represents a high-emission future. These scenarios provide a range of possible climate futures for Mali. The results of the study indicate that under both selected scenarios, there will be significant variation in the analysed climate-energy parameters, causing the instability of renewable energy production systems, hence the instability of energy systems and the country's energy supply. The findings show a decrease in precipitation, which could impact hydropower generation. Additionally, there will be a decrease in wind speeds, potentially affecting wind energy production. Furthermore, there will be an increase in temperature, leading to higher cooling demand and increased strain on the energy system. Overall, the findings show how crucial it is to structure the energy system and energy policies in order to sustainably transition to renewable energy sources and effectively minimise the effects of climate change on energy production in Mali.