Comparing households’ perception of flood hazard with historical climate and hydrological data in the Lower Mono River catchment (West Africa), Benin and Togo

Abstract

The comparison of local perception of flood hazards, with hydrological and climate parameters, can give more insight and understanding on the causes of flood, its impacts and the strategies to effectively address the problem. This study examines whether households’ perception of rainfall and flood occurrence are consistent with observed variation in climate parameter (rainfall) and hydrological (discharge) data in the Lower Mono River catchment (Togo-Benin, West Africa). Perceptions of the 744 households from the catchment were collected and compared to historical climatic and hydrological data using correlation analysis. The Standardized Precipitation Index was utilized to identify the extreme years in terms of precipitation. Chi-test and binary regression analyses were performed to identify the most affected communes within the catchment, and the factors that influence household perceptions on rainfall change, respectively. Findings reveal that 85% of the respondents perceived an excess in rainfall during the last 20 years and identify two particular years as the most affected by flood, which correspond to the climate data analysis. Households’ perceptions on flooded months are correlated with the monthly precipitation and discharge at the upper part of the catchment while the ones at down part are not correlated. Furthermore, the chi-test analysis shows that in the perception of households, the communes at the down part are more affected by flood than those at the upper part of the catchment. It is then important for decision maker to consider local communities’ perception for having insight regarding climate parameters, the causes of flood and in the decision making for implementing measures to cope with this phenomenon.