Modelling of Hydropower Potential over Europe

Abstract

This thesis explores the technical hydropower potential over Europe, analysing the complex interplay between hydrology, climate, and operational strategies. Using geospatial and hydrological modelling, the study processes Digital Elevation Models and Community Land Model (CLM5) data to estimate runoff and calculate hydropower generation for sixteen upstream areas of hydropower dams across a 25-year period (2000-2024). The results show catchment area, discharge, power a strong relationship between water discharge and power produced but the two variables are not always directly correlated. This is exhibited by a comparative analysis of a major drought year (2003), and a high-performance year (2024) reveals decoupling. In 2003, a severe reduction in discharge led to a direct and significant drop in power, confirming hydrology as the dominant limiting factor. However, the year 2024, which featured peak power generation, did not correspond to the highest discharge on record. This decoupling suggests that discharge does not instantly get converted to power meaning there could be a lag. In practice, strategic reservoir management, operational efficiency, and other non-hydrological factors are critical for maximizing energy output in large-scale systems. The research provides a methodology for assessing hydropower potential on a regional scale and highlights the need for future models to integrate operational and economic variables. As a main renewable energy source, the discharge and volume results obtained from this research are crucial for integrating hydropower plant and reservoir management practices that could help improve generation for in a changing climate. The proposed methodology could also be applied in other regions globally, especially where dam regulation data are scarce such as in Africa.