Abstract:
This paper investigates the role of intra-regional trade on food availability within the
context of global climatic change in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
To that end, the study uses a module of trade cost minimization built within a bio-economic
optimization model of cropland allocation. The results show that the climate-induced trade pattern
in ECOWAS depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions during the century. No specific
pattern of trade flows is predicted but several countries may become dependent on food imports
outside of ECOWAS. An adjustment of the common external tariffs (CET) may reduce food import
costs. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could significantly reduce outside dependence. Finally,
actions are urgently needed to be taken to foster agricultural production in ECOWAS.
