Climate change, migration and its effects on agricultural productivity in rural Mali

Abstract

The subject Climate Change and Human Mobility has become a topic in the heart of international issue, since it recommendation at COP 21 in Paris in 2015. Thererfore, there is an increasing body of literature review on climate change-induced migration such as with no concensus on the topic. The review has been carried out several channel on the relationship between climate change and migration. The main objective of this study is to examine the rate of migration in response to climate change and its effect on agricultural productivity in rural Mali. In addition, it will explore the influencing factors of agricultural production in rural area of Mali. This study builds on the Model of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to assess the impact of climate change on migration in the first objective and combines with a multinomial logistic regression model to analyse the perception level and the causes of out-migration in Sikasso region. In our last objective we used a theoretical model to test is whether the reliability of the insurance mechanism is negatively correlated with our measure of unobservable household-specific productivity level. The study is mainly based on secondary data (EMOP and EACI or LSMS of the World Bank survey in Mali) both national survey from national institutions and website data (for example UN population division world bank etc.). These data were completed with the survey data of selected farm households in the third region of Mali (Sikasso). The study concludes that despite unfavourable climate change among rural farm households, migration remains mainly due to the poverty or unemployment. Furthermore, the study finds that the reliability of the insurance mechanism is negatively correlated with our measure of unobservable household-specific productivity level.