Climate services platform to support information on projected changes on climate indices: Case of West Africa

Abstract

Extreme climate events in West Africa have increased, posing potential risks and harmful consequences for the region's natural ecosystems and human populations. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies, it is essential to have access to information on these extreme events. Climate services are important in providing information about the climate to assist in decision-making. This study aimed to develop a web-based climate services platform that specifically addresses changes in rainfall and temperature extremes indices in West Africa. The study used data from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) with a spatial resolution of 25 km. Projections were made under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1……) for the near future (2031–2060) and far future (2071–2100). 14 indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used for this study. First, the ensemble mean of 15 NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 models was compared with observational data (CHIRPS and ERA5) for the period 1985–2014 over West Africa considering variables such as maximum, minimum, and mean temperature as well as precipitation. The results showed that the ensemble mean of the models and the observational data have similar patterns, although the ensemble mean of the models tends to overestimate in certain areas. Subsequently, the changes in the aforementioned indices were projected for Burkina Faso as a case study. The findings clearly showed the influence of global warming on all regions of the country. The projections of temperature extreme indices are more pronounced with the SSP585 scenario and towards the end of the century. In contrast to temperature changes, precipitation changes in Burkina Faso exhibited distinct variations displaying a combination of increasing and decreasing trends. To better understand these indices in the easiest way, a web-based platform was developed. Its aim is to make these indices accessible through an interface, enabling users to gain a comprehensive understanding of future climate indices projections in regional and local contexts across West Africa.