Impact of Changing Climate on the Potential of Streamflow for Hydropower Generation in Africa, Genale Dawa III (GD-3) in Ethiopia

Abstract

The impact of changing climate on the potential streamflow for hydropower generation is a critical concern in Africa, specifically in the Genale Dawa III(GD-3) catchment in Ethiopia. This study aims to contribute to the growing body of knowledge regarding climate change, streamflow analysis, and hydropower potential in the region. Its aim is to establish a relationship between streamflow and hydropower potential, analyze how climate change affects annual hydropower potential, investigate the impact of climate change on streamflow. Climate change has global implications, directly affecting precipitation, temperature, and streamflow patterns, ultimately impacting the streamflow. Africa, which has abundant hydropower potential, is facing increasing climate hazards. This study utilized climate data (historical 1996-2005, projected periods 2011-2100) and streamflow data1980-2015. Three climate models, CanESM_RCA4, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_RCA4, and NorESM_RCA4, under emission pathway RCP 8.5, were incorporated to capture changes in hydropower potential and a range of climate uncertainties. Hydrological simulations were performed (Liu & Olarinoye, 2023). using the HBV model. Additionally, a consistent trend of increasing long-term average temperature and precipitation was observed across all three climate models across the catchment area as 22°C increase until 2100, 1389mm/yr decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the long-term average streamflow projected a general decrease of 15.7%. The research also assesses the general change of the average long-term change in hydropower potential of the future periods of 34% decrease catchment. An overall understanding of the potential changes in precipitation, temperature, streamflow, and hydropower generation is crucial in Africa, particularly in the Genale Dawa III catchment. These findings contribute to the assessment of the impact of climate change on hydropower generation and can inform sustainable energy management strategies in the region.