Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Smallholder Farmers’ Crop Production-Based Revenue in Togo

Abstract

This study employs a Ricardian approach to measure the impact of climate change on smallholder famers’ crop production-based revenue in Togo. A regression of farmer’s revenue on climate, soil and other socioeconomic variables was conducted to capture farmer adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on cross-section data of the National Agricultural Census conducted during 2012-2013 agricultural season and average long-term temperature and rainfall data from 1961 to 2013 pooled over the 35 districts of Togo. Results indicate that climate has a nonlinear effect on net revenue from crop production. In rainy season, the marginal impact of the temperature on farmers’ net revenue is negative, while the one for the rainfall is positive. The scenarios of decrease of the rainfall and/or increase of the temperature are very detrimental to Togolese agriculture, because of the already harsh climatic conditions in the country. The analysis of farmers’ perception of climate change reveals a high increase in temperature and a high variability in rainfall pattern. Education attainment, farming experience, access to extension services and credit as well as climate information are factors that enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity to climate change and variability. Consequently, the government should design policies aimed at improving the aforementioned factors.