Assessing the impact of climate change on smallholder farmers’ crop net revenue in Togo

Abstract

Abstract: This study employs a Ricardian modelling approach to measure the impact of climate change variables such as temperature and rainfalls on smallholder famers’ crop net revenue in Togo. The obtained results show that climate has a nonlinear effect on crop net revenue. In rainy season, the marginal impact of temperature on revenue shows that if the temperature increases by 1°C, the net crop revenue may fall by US$340.33/ha. On the other hand, if rainfalls increase by 10 mm, the net revenue may increase by US$35.5/ha. A warming of 2°C will lead to a decrease by 62.02% in the net revenue in 2050. Also, a decrease in rainfalls by 2.5% in 2025 will lead to 0.82% fall in the net revenue, while 7.85% fall in the net revenue are expected with 10% decrease in rainfalls in 2050. Similarly, an increase of 2°C in the temperature and a decrease of 10% in rainfalls will lead to 80.75% fall in the net revenue in 2050 in Togo. Other variables such as educational attainment, access to extension services and livestock ownership are found to have positive impact on farmers’ crop net revenue. Consequently, policies aimed at improving those factors could improve smallholder farmers’ wellbeing.