The Socio-economic Impact of Climate Change on the Coastal Zone of the Gambia

Abstract

Coastal systems are predominantly delicate to three key drivers related to Climate Change (CC): Sea Level Rise (SLR); ocean temperature and; ocean acidity. This study focused on the impacts realized from SLR. These variables are anticipated to increase with significant threats to the populace and structures of social, cultural or economic importance along Coastal Zones (CZ). This study seeks to: characterize the trend of annual rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures from 1986- 2016; estimate the land at-risk of being lost to inundation under a 1m SLR scenario and the estimation of the rate of annual land loss for each coastal cell in The Gambia. This study estimates the monetary value of land to be lost and the population at risk of CC impacts in the study area. The results of the study reveal mean annual rainfall increased at a rate of 0.237mm per annum over the CZ. The annual minimum temperature showed a decreasing trend of 0.026o C while the maximum temperature showed an increasing trend of 0.028o C annually. By the end of this century, under a 1m SLR scenario, the total land to be lost due to inundation is ~12.46 km2 (1,246 ha) with a corresponding economic loss of ~US $788 Million (GMD37 Billion) over the CZ. This land loss is predicted to occur at an approximate rate of 6m annually along the CZ of The Gambia. Over 15,560 people per km2 of land are estimated to be at risk of coastal flooding events in the study area.