Energy Efficiency Potential and its Impact on Long-Term Electricity Consumption in Urban Residential Sector: A Case Study of Lomé, Togo.

Abstract

Efficient energy use could help save energy whereas reducing greenhouse gas emissions in emerging countries where less efficient appliances are used. This study attempted to assess the potential of energy efficiency in Lomé’s residential sector, capital city of Togo. The impact of efficient energy use on the sector of electricity consumption was analysed with the related carbon dioxide emissions reduction. A system dynamic modelling utilizing Stella software was used to model the electricity consumption. In addition, a survey was conducted in order to assess appliances (lighting, refrigeration, cooling and ventilation) efficiency and to determine if they had been bought as new or used items. Furthermore, the electricity consumption of used and brand new televisions and refrigerator-freezers was monitored. Two different models of Lomé’s electricity consumption were built, calibrated and validated with past data of 2000-2016 period. The time span of the models extends from 2000 to 2050.Then, the models were used for the evaluation of three efficient energy policies: 1) Business-As-Usual scenario, 2) New Policies scenario, and 3) Sensitivity scenario. Results revealed a predominantly low efficient appliances percentage in Lomé’s housing sector. The model results also showed that the substitution of used electric appliances with new and efficient models may lead Togo to save an important amount of energy and to reduce the related CO2 emissions. A particular attention was paid to the rebound effect of the energy-efficient measures. Undeniably, if there was any increase in the expected energy savings, this would improve the well-being of the population. The proposed model can be considered as a “scientific proofs” for the elaboration of public policy on standard and labelling for household’s appliances in emerging countries.