Farmers and communities vulnerability and resilience to climate shocks and adaptation policy responses in the Niger basin of Benin

Abstract

This study aims to answer the question: How are households and communities in the Niger basin of Benin vulnerable and resilient to climate shocks and what will their adaptation policy responses be? The analysis of the impacts of climate shocks is done through a recursive, dynamic mathematical programming model that represents the economic decisions of the eight types of farmers found in the basin. Simulations are carried out, based on the bio-economic model, on some adaptation policies which are: (i) improvements to irrigation, (ii) better access to credit, (iii) research and development, and (iv) better access to the labor market. The vulnerability and resilience of farmers and communities to climate shocks are assessed based on an integrated approach using indicators, which include a series of different socio-economic and bio-physical attributes corresponding to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definition of vulnerability. Then, the approach is validated through a Classification and Regression Trees (CART) model. Moreover, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are performed and econometric analyses are carried out to forecast the indices. Findings reveal that farm income declines due to climate shocks from -17.43 to -69.48% compared to the baseline scenario (farm income of 2012-2013). Farmers of agro-ecological zone II will be the most affected by climate shocks, followed by agro-ecological zones III, I and IV. Furthermore, the impacts of extreme events (floods and droughts) are simulated and reveal that they will negatively affect farming. Findings also show a decline in land and labor shadow prices over the years due to climate shocks and extreme events. The simulations reveal that the adaptation strategies contribute to reverse the adverse impacts of climate shocks on farm income. The combination of supplementary irrigation in cotton production and the possibility of finding available labor appears to be the best measure that mitigates the adverse effects of climate shocks. The results of the vulnerability and resilience analysis indicate that the situation of many villages has improved between 1998 and 2012. On average, farmers in the agro-ecological zone I are the most resilient, followed by those in agro-ecological zone III, agro-ecological zone IV and lastly agro-ecological zone II. Forecasts depict that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on farm households’ and communities’ resilience levels. There is an indisputable role for irrigation agriculture - not only in cotton production - to play in boosting production and fighting poverty in the Niger basin of Benin. Moreover, results indicating significant differences among communities and agro-ecological zones suggest that adaptation technologies should be targeted to the various villages and agro-ecological zones to enhance their specific adaptation potential.