A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Food Crop Production and Prices in Senegal

Abstract

The Senegalese agricultural sector shows low production level over the last decades. This study assesses the impact of climate change on crop production and price levels in Senegal and also tests policies instruments through a national static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our main results show that the local impacts of climate change (through declining yields) are likely to affect Senegal beyond the agricultural sector and farmers. The overall effects of global climate change (through higher agricultural products prices) are also negative, but some farmers can reap the benefit of higher prices. The results show also after testing different policies instruments in the worst climate scenario for Senegal that decreasing the rice import tariff by 20% and subsidizing fertilizers are the most suitable policies instrument that can help to mitigate the negative effects that climate change has on agricultural food markets in Senegal. A global action plan to evaluate and improve policy instruments, can mitigate the negative effects of climate change and enhance the overall resilience of the farming system.