Modelling above Ground Carbon Stock in Lamto Scientific Reserve and Lokoli Ecofarm, Ivory Coast

Abstract

This study analysed the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon stock and vegetation in two key areas of Côte d’Ivoire: the Lamto Scientific Reserve (LSR) and the Lokoli Ecofarm (EFL), from 1990 to 2022. The results highlight a notable increase in forest formations, especially in Lamto, where savanna landscapes have gradually become more wooded, gaining 108 hectares. In Lokoli, a similar trend is observed but remains at an earlier stage, with wooded savannas predominating. Projections for 2060 and 2100 suggest continued expansion of forests if environmental conditions are maintained. Regarding floristic diversity, Lamto hosts 302 species (193 genera, 72 families) compared to 216 species (147 genera, 56 families) in Lokoli, both sites being dominated by the Fabaceae family. Carbon stocks are significant: on average, Lamto exhibits 151.36 t/ha of biomass (75.68 tC/ha), with gallery forests reaching the highest values, while Lokoli shows 38.16 t/ha of biomass (19.08 tC/ha), with dense dry forests recording the maximum. The economic value of the sequestered carbon ranges between EUR 2,634 and EUR 13,171. Predictive models confirm that vegetation densification correlates with rising carbon stocks, particularly in Lamto. eXtrem Gradient Boost (XGBoost) and Random Forest provide the most accurate estimates, supporting advanced modeling approaches for sustainable ecosystem management.