Renewable energy production under climate change, decentralized smart grid and sustainable energy system: Evidence in Togo

Abstract

West African countries’ power sector encounters interrelated problems, such as intermittent power access, lack of power security and reliability, aging distribution infrastructure, and the impact of climate change. To meet their increasing energy demand and ensure a secure and reliable electricity supply under the changing climate, a resilient sustainable energy system is to be developed and promoted. Accordingly, the current research seeks to create an enabling environment that will permit the development of a sustainable electric power system model that is climate-resilient and compatible with the Togolese power system. This case study enables energy security through energy efficiency promotion, clean energy development, supply quality and reliability improvement, and reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) by increasing electricity access in Togo. To reach the objectives of the study, an integrated approach is used. Firstly, Sandia method-assessment approach is applied to develop a typical meteorological year (TMY) as an alternative solution for data issues in renewable energy (RE) studies. Secondly, the impact of changing climate (CC) on decentralized power resources (solar energy) technology and generation potential has been conducted based on energy rating and photovoltaic cell (monocrystalline, polycrystalline and amorphous) temperature models at the national level under RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios. Finally, the existing power system networks are thoroughly investigated based on expert elicitation and modelled with Simscape-MATLAB/Simulink in view of a Smart Grid (SG) development considering the penetration of renewable energy (RE). Results showed a very low installed RE (hydro and solar) capacity of 11.27% from 2015 to 2020. The generated TMY predicts PV system performance within 2% of the datasets at all sites. Regarding the impact of CC, PV cells’ temperature would likely rise across all five regions in the country and may trigger a decline in the PV potential under RCP2.6 and 8.5. However, the magnitude of the induced change depended on two major factors: (1) PV technology and (2) geographical position. These dissimilarities were more pronounced under RCP8.5 with amorphous technology. The Togolese power sector is characterized by a number of issues including limited supply, technical issues regarding transmission and distribution (power losses due to aging infrastructures), and power outages. Therefore, the power system is modeled in view of its transformation to increase supply and improve reliability and resiliency.