Spatial analysis of drought vulnerability in cocoa agroforestry systems across the Ghana-Togo border

Abstract

Extreme events like droughts frequently affect West Africa, known as the world’s centre for cocoa production. In Ghana and Togo, these extreme events negatively affect water supplies and agricultural land productivity, especially for cocoa. This study aims to create a cocoa drought vulnerability map that offers a clearer perspective of drought effects over the transboundary territory between Ghana and Togo, where substantial amounts of cocoa are produced. The vulnerability map used 16 criteria categorised under three (3) vulnerability components Exposure [4], Sensitivity [6], and Adaptive Capacity [6]. The study used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to normalise the criteria. Results showed that over 70% of the cocoa cultivation area in the study area is moderately to highly vulnerable to drought, while less than 30% is classified as very low and low. The most susceptible areas are located on the Togolese side, extending from the central to the northern region, compared to Ghana. These findings are relevant to support drought resilience strategies in the cocoa sector aiming to prioritise interventions and maximise cocoa productivity per drought vulnerability category zone