Evaluation of the Economic Impact of Coastal Erosion in Dakar Region

Abstract

Besides the environmental impacts, climate change negatively affects the economic value of coastal zones. Coastal erosion, which is one of its impacts, causes damage to people living along the coast. The narrowing of the beach due to erosion leads to socio-economic damage by reducing the areas where economic activities are carried out. As a result, livelihoods, human settlements, and economic activities such as fishing, tourism, and industry are disrupted. The evaluation of the economic impacts of coastal erosion is timely and relevant. This study aims to economically investigate the most affected coastal areas in Dakar region in 2030 and 2040. It also allows for the identification of localities that need protective infrastructure to prevent economic losses from coastal erosion. The assessment is done by estimating the economic value of the beach using multilinear regression, an econometric forecasting model. Software such as R, Excel, ArcGIS, and Digital Shoreline Analysis System were used in this study. The results show that, due to coastal erosion, the district municipalities along the coast of Dakar will record a loss estimated at 38,507,856,000 FCFA in 2030 and 57,822,698,000 FCFA in 2040. The results of this study suggest that the parameters such as Beach Width, Lost Areas, Coastal Length, Dynamic Rate, Littoral Areas, Built Areas, Proximity to Town, Coastal Vulnerability Index, Number of Buildings, Number of Hotels, Number of Industries, Number of Fishing Points, and Road Length play an important role on littoral value. Coastal erosion will be among the most threatening disasters in the Dakar region if the “do nothing” option is adopted as an adaptation measure.