Business model for hydrogen exports from Senegal to Hamburg, Germany

Abstract

In the context of global decarbonization, green hydrogen has emerged as a key solution for hard-to-abate sectors, including shipping and heavy industry. Senegal, rich in solar and wind resources, offers a promising opportunity for the production and supply of green hydrogen. Germany is interested in importing green hydrogen from renewable-rich countries. This thesis designs and evaluates a business model based on investment in emission reduction for exporting green hydrogen from Senegal to Germany, using a mixed-methods approach and Osterwalder's Business Model Canvas (BMC). The value proposition is high-purity hydrogen, with oxygen as a by-product, enabling industrial decarbonization and local economic development. This hydrogen targets customers, including the German and Senegal industries. It is delivered through maritime shipping and supported by customer relationships, emphasising reliability, sustainability certification, and long-term collaboration. Delivering this value relies on key resources, including solar and wind plants, water, hydrogen production and export infrastructure, supporting activities such as power generation, hydrogen production, storage, and transport. These activities are coordinated through partnerships with government, financial institutions, and technology companies like Siemens Energy, enhancing feasibility and reducing risk. The cost structure consists of CAPEX and OPEX, aligned with revenue from hydrogen sales, with potential income from oxygen and carbon pricing. Financial analysis shows a base-case NPV of USD 69.24 million, IRR of 12%, and ROI of 53.12%, but sensitivity analysis reveals that lower hydrogen prices, absence of O₂ sales, or missing carbon pricing could reduce profitability. The project has a payback period of 16 years in the base scenario, which may challenge investors, although 2030 and 2050 horizons show improving ROE and competitiveness. By linking all nine BMC components, the study demonstrates that the project is feasible and commercially promising; however, it faces risks that require mitigation. Strategic partnerships, supportive policies, and adaptive planning are essential to position Senegal as a key player in the global hydrogen economy.