Modelling the Cost Structure and Value Chain of e-methanol Production using Solid Sorbent Direct Air Capture in Arid Regions

Abstract

Since CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas causing global warming, CO2-free solutions like e-methanol enable the energy transition. E-methanol is renewable and carbon-negative by extracting CO2 from the air via Direct Air Capture sorbent. While e-methanol is environmentally beneficial, is it economically feasible? This research examined the cost structure and value chain for two e-methanol production scenarios. Scenario 1 uses solid sorbent DAC for CO2 and H2O to generate syngas via co-electrolysis with solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC), then methanol by CO hydrogenation. Scenario 2 is direct CO2 hydrogenation using DAC CO2 and PEM hydrogen. Analysing inputs/outputs showed Scenario 1 consumes fewer raw materials and energy with better efficiency. SOEC Syngas Scenario 1 has a 0.63€/kg levelized cost, 50% lower than the 1.26 €/kg for PEM hydrogen Scenario 2. Detailed cost structure analysis revealed syngas/hydrogen, electricity, SOEC capital, and DAC capital/sorbent costs as key drivers. Sensitivity analysis showed 16% lower Scenario 1 methanol cost with projected 2050 SOEC capital reductions, 10% lower with DAC capital reductions, and 33% lower with electricity reductions.