Abstract:
This work investigated the impact of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C of global warming levels (GWLs) above
pre-industrial levels on annual and seasonal mean changes in temperature extremes over Cˆote
d’Ivoire and its different climatic zones. We used the multi-model Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Experiment for Africa of 25 regional climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario. The
changes in temperature are quantified relative to the period 1971–2000 based on five Expert Team
on Climate Change Detection and Indices indexes namely for warm spells, hot nights, hot days,
cold nights and cold days. We show that a global warming of 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C will lead to an
increase in the frequency of warm days and warm nights and a decrease in the occurrence of cold
days and cold nights across Cˆote d’Ivoire in all climatic zones and seasons. More than 80% of the
model ensemble members project this change at both GWLs. Moreover, the assessment of
differences in GWLs highlights that the difference between the 1.5 ◦C and 2 ◦C thresholds may
intensify the changes over all the country, climatic zones and seasons. Therefore this 0.5 ◦C
difference in global warming is likely to impact upon energy demand and the agricultural system
throughout the country and over all of the seasons. This study provides climate information for
decision makers related to sectors such as agriculture, energy in their adaptation strategies.
