Abstract:
This study analyzed the trends of extreme daily rainfall indices over the Ouémé basin
using the observed data from 1950 to 2014 and the projected rainfall of regional climate model REMO
(REgional MOdel) for the period 2015–2050. For future trends analysis, two Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) new scenarios are considered, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The indices
considered are number of heavy rainfall days, number of very heavy rainfall days, consecutive dry
days, consecutive wet days, daily maximum rainfall, five-day maximum rainfall, annual wet-day
total rainfall, simple daily intensity index, very wet days, and extremely wet days. These indices were
calculated at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the parametric
linear regression approach were used for trends detection. As result, significant declining in the
number of heavy and very heavy rainfall days, heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, consecutive wet
days and annual wet-day rainfall total were detected in most stations for the historical period as well
as the future period following the scenario RCP8.5. Furthermore, few stations presented significant
trends for the scenario RCP4.5 and the high proportion of stations with the inconsistence trends
invites the planners to get ready for an uncertain future climate following this scenario.
