Abstract:
Changes in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and
human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate
change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the
linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this
study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices
were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall,
temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency
but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator
values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results
revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized.
With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive
measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.
