Abstract:
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Economic Community
of West African States (ECOWAS). To that end, a bio-economic model is built and calibrated on
2004 base year dataset and the potential impact is evaluated on land use and crop production
under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) coupled with three socio-economic
scenarios (SSPs). The findings suggest that land use change may depend on crop types and
prevailing future conditions. As of crop production, the results show that paddy rice, oilseeds,
sugarcane, cocoa, coffee, and sesame production could experience a decline under both moderate and harsh climate conditions in most cases. Also, doubling crop yields by 2050 could overall
mitigate the negative impact of moderate climate change. The magnitude and the direction of the
impacts may vary in space and time.
