A System Dynamics Model of the Nigerian Electricity System

Abstract

—Policy guides decision. This paper examines policy in the Nigerian Electric Power Sector (NEPS) to cut transmission losses (TL) and improve capacity factor (CF) to 5% and 90%, respectively. A System Dynamics (SD) model developed in STELLA software package was employed to analyze this policy. Secondary data were sourced from: a) National Control Centre (NCC); b) Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC); and c) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Two scenarios were considered, the pre-privatized and improved scenarios. Results showed that at TL of 5% and CF of 90% i) electricity outages would be reduced by about 17.84% from 2010 to 2050; ii) over the study period a capacity of 473 MW (about 94.6 MW/year) would be fed back into the system; iii) transmission losses of 3,400 GWh would have been curtailed by 2050; and iv) cutting down TL and improving CF alone in NEPS will not totally curtail electricity outages and deficiencies in NEPS. Therefore, the study recommends that increasing generating capacity (MW) would go a long way in curbing electricity deficiencies. Renewable energy sources could be a better choice. Further studies are recommended in this regard. It was proven by the study that a system dynamics modelling approach is suitable for examining long-term behavior and dynamic feedback in Nigeria’s electricity sector.