Implications of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Pastoral Resources and Practices within Kompienga Province, Burkina Faso

Abstract

The aim of this research work was to assess implications of climate and land use/land cover changes on pastoral resources and practices of herders in Kompienga province. The climatic data (1981-2016), Landsat images (1989-2015) and survey data were retrieved and analysed. Trend analysis using Mann-Kendall test, and Standardized Anomalies Index (SAI) analysis were conducted on rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and potential evapotranspiration data. Furthermore, rain onset, cessation, Length of Rainy Season (LRS) and Number of Rainy Days (NRD) were computed from daily rainfall data. In addition, deviations from a reference (climatology: 1981-2010), of each climatic variable were determined. Images classification was performed using Random Forest Algorithm in R-Software R 3.3.2. Changes detection and land use/cover prediction were done using MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation). Survey data were collected from 271 respondents (pastoralists, agro-pastoralits). Since 2011, annual rainfall amount was found lower than that of the climatology (877.8 mm), while temperature (minimum and maximum), RH and EPT of the other year were greater. An upward trend of temperature and the NRD were depicted at 95 % confident level. The minimum temperature was found evolving faster (0.50 °C per decade) than the maximum temperature (0.20 °C per decade). The period studied was characterized by more wet year (17 %) than dry year (14 %) while the normal year were predominant (69 %). Rain onset, cessation, LRS were highly variable compared to the average onset (15th June), cessation (15th October) and LRS (110.9 days) of the climatology. Land use dynamics was characterized by an increase in croplands at an average rate of 46.7 % per year, between 1989 and 2015. On the contrary a decline of grazable areas was observed since 2001 at an average rate of 6.0 % per year. Generally, results of climatic and images analysis were corroborated by respondents’ perceptions. Respondents similarly depicted an increase in cropping areas (98.5 % of respondents) to the detriment of pasture land (97.8 % of respondents). In addition, 93.4 % of respondent depicted an increase in temperature while 97.8 % depicted a decreasing rainfall pattern. Climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics are negatively affecting forage availability (in quality and quantity); livestock production and reproduction performance; herders’ practices, their livelihoods and the cohabitation of herding and crop farming. To adapt to these impacts, respondents adopt local adaptations strategies such as the use of crop residue (93.7 %%), fodder trees (77.1 %%), Fattening/Destocking (88.2 %%), Prayers and other rites (94.5 %%), transhumance (97.0 %%), f ee d supplement (99.3 %%) and use of ground water (65.3 %%). The LULC is likely to keep evolving to the detriment of pasture lands in the next 10 and 20 coming year (Kappa coefficient = 0.7). The vegetation is likely to decreased from 85.9 % in 1989 to 75.7 % and 74.7 % in 2025 and 2045. On the contrary cropland areas which accounted for 0.8 % of land area in 1989 might increase up to 22.1 % in 2025 and slightly decrease in 2045 (21.9 %). This is consistent with respondents' perceptions on the future of pastoral herding in the province with a high probability to abandon this activity. Beyond, strategies adopted by respondents, urgent actions at both national and international level, need to be undertake to tackle side effects of the coupled climate and lands use and cover dynamics. That might successfully reduce the vulnerability of pastoral communities in Kompienga province, Burkina Faso.