Impact of Climate Change on Electricity Consumption in West Africa. (A Case Study of Côte D’ivoire)

Abstract

Nowadays, the economy sector is affected by the weather vagaries. Electricity is one of the most sensitive sectors, due to the fact that electricity consumption is connected to the numerous climatic variables, especially the atmospheric temperature. This study focus on the impact of temperature change on electricity consumption in the different climate zones of Côte d’Ivoire. It analyzes the trend of electricity consumption and extreme temperatures (maximum, minimum and mean) on the period from 1973 up to 2016; it determines the link between electricity consumption and extreme temperatures by using the linear regression. And finally, it determines the future electricity demand using the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED). The result reveals a clear evidence change in each parameter of temperature for each climate zone during the period of record. It shows an increase in the trend of the annual evolution of maximum, minimum and mean temperature. Besides, the trend of annual electricity consumption shows also an increase from 1990 to 2015.The monthly behavior of electricity consumption and temperature, shows that the electricity consumption is more important during the hot months, and low during the cool months. In addition, this work shows a positive significant correlation between the annual increase of the maximum temperature and the annual electricity consumption in the three climate zone. Projection of future electricity consumption from 2013 to 2045 with MAED model shows an increase of consumption in each scenario, which goes up to 8% of the growth rate during the period from 2013-2045.