Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate Stress across Regional Levels in Niger

Abstract

Rural communities in Niger entirely rely on natural resources and have no other option but to smoothing their livelihoods against climate change related knock-on effects. In the context of unpredictable environmental pattern, these communities are subject to increasingly greater adverse climate exposure and sensitivity. These communities have a lower adaptive capacity, hence, falling into permanent vulnerability. In order to support policy implication and rural development efforts, the objective of this paper aims at analyzing the vulnerability of rural households to climate stress. Following Chaudhuri et al. 2002, logistic regression is used to estimate the proportion of rural households with income below the poverty line and the result shows that 78.41% of rural household have their income below the poverty threshold. There is a positive correlation between climate stress (early cessation of rainfall, flood, and drought) and vulnerability to poverty. On the other hand, following Temesgen Deressa, Rashid M. Hassan and Claudia Ringler (2008), vulnerability resilience indicator is used to compute vulnerability as the net effect of exposure and sensitivity on adaptive capacity. While rural households living in the regions of Tahoua and Dosso are the less vulnerable to climate stress, the results indicate that those of Zinder, Niamey, Maradi and Diffa are relatively more vulnerable because of their relatively low social capital, collective action and community system for responding to climate shocks. Finally, the study analyzes the impact of climatic variables on food and non-food grain crops and the percentage of poor using panel data. An increase in highest maximum temperature negatively affects food grain crops, which in turn exacerbates the poverty status while rainfall pattern is conducive for agriculture production and poverty eradication.