Climate Change and Food security in Central Mali: a Dynamic and Stochastic Bioeconomic Farm Model

Abstract

African farmers need to better adapt to climate variability. Many of them underwent a terrible famine in the seventies and still face food insecurity. In this study we aim to investigate the situation of Malian farmers of the Cinzana commune where there has been little socio-economic improvement since Independence. The commune is typical of the regions with little irrigation and with no participation in the cotton sector. In this study we simulate different policy instruments that are supposed to improve resilience, such as, irrigation, credit, climate forecast and animal fattening. We compare the impact in terms of cash income, food security, employment and sustainability. The findings of this study show that the impact of climate variability cannot be separated from soil fertility management (which is reduced by population pressure). Adaptations strategies to climate variability such as climate prediction are useful but cannot solve the problem of soil fertility decline. The simulations show that farmers of the area are still food insecure. Farmers still need to buy food after a dry scenario. If droughts occur several years in a row they are likely to be unable to buy food and will need food aid. The strategies to improve agricultural productions and food security have to incorporate both soil fertility management and rainfall variability management. Farmers need to integrate crop and livestock activities so as to get enough animal manure to maintain soil fertility. However, the government must find a way to revive an agricultural credit program or to subsidize the price of fertilizers because of current low purchasing power of households. In this study, we show that policy instruments can have a strong impact and that some combination of instruments has a better impact than others.